THE END OF THE LIBERAL EMPIRE – Andrews Coyne, Maclean’s April 12

There is no doubt that the Liberals are in political purgatory; but while it might be the end of empire, the party could still reach the Promised Land. The days of the wide-ranging economic and social changes of the Pearson area will not likely return soon, and while there are important issues the Liberals can latch on to –such as pension reform, democratic reform and the environment; these do not engage the public imagination and interests that the Pearson and early Trudeau years provided, with such matters as Medicare, the flag debate, capital punishment, government in bedrooms and the repatriation of the constitution, etc. Even Brian Mulroney had some major issues and controversies; the Free Trade Agreement and the GST comes to mind; not to mention his failed attempts at accommodating Quebec.

The BIG IDEAS of yore are probably just that: in our past. Globalization, economic and communal, has made it much harder for individual governments to make radical changes in the socio-economic structure without endangering the national economy. The changes we make will be incremental and aligned with the world economy and the US in particular. We are in the same boat –sink or swim.

The Conservatives now have the political centre-right, and even if they just maintain the status quo; they could hold on to power for a long time. Nothing the Liberal strategists can cook up is likely to change that. There is a general resistance to major changes in the population, with a demographic getting older and more conservative; a steady- as-she-goes course is the best policy for the incumbents. That, I fear, will leave the Liberals with only the single hope that the Conservatives will make a serious blunder. Even if they don’t make a major, decisive one, they seem quite able to do so in incrementally. In our multi-party system, with one party, the PQ holding the majority Quebec votes and the NDP and Green party picking at the fringes, I don’t see much hope for a majority for any party in the near future. Yet, Lester Pearson did all right without ever having a majority.

The only other hope for the Liberals, I fear, is to elect a new leader with some charisma and verve to engage the public imagination and emotion; but, having stumbled twice, it is not likely that the Liberal leadership will have the courage to make such a dramatic change, at least not until they are staring down the precipice. By then, however, the time is night and the end is nigh.